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Advocates of 'cliodynamics' say that they can use scientific methods to illuminate the past. But historians are not so sure. It was first introduced in the four short stories — which would later be collected as the novel Foundation. Axioms Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events.
Asimov used the analogy of a gas: An observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but with the kinetic theory can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy.
Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empirewhich numbered one quintillion. The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldonestablished two axioms: Ebling Mis added these axioms That there would be no fundamental change in the society That human reactions to stimuli would remain constant.
Golan Trevize in Foundation and Earth added this axiom that humans are the only sentient intelligence in the galaxy. Limitations The fact that Seldon established a Second Foundation of mental-science adepts to oversee his Seldon Plan might suggest that even Seldon himself had doubts about the ultimate ability of a purely mathematical approach to predicting historical processes, and that he recognized that the development of psychic skills, such as those used by the Mulehad the ability to invalidate the assumptions underlying his models, though he did not and could not predict the appearance of the Mule himself.
The Seldon methodology might therefore only work at a certain level of species-development, and would over time become less useful. Psychohistory has one basic, underlying limitation which Asimov postulated for the first time on the last page of the final book in the Foundation series: In Asimov's Foundation series, humans form the only sentient race that developed in the entire Milky Way Galaxy.
Seldon developed psychohistory to predict the actions of large groups of humans. Even robots technically fall under the umbrella of psychohistory, because humans built them, and they thus represent more or less a human "action", or at least, possess a thought-framework similar enough to that of their human creators that psychohistory can predict their actions.
However, psychohistory cannot predict the actions of a sentient alien race; their psychology may differ so much from that of humans that normal psychohistory cannot understand or predict their actions.
The end of the series offered two possibilities: However, statistically two or more alien races might evolve in the same galaxy, leading them into inevitable conflict.
The fighting in this other galaxy would only end when one race emerged the victor, and after the prolonged conflict with other races, would have developed an aggressive and expansionist mindset.
In contrast, humans had never encountered another sentient species in the Milky Way Galaxy, so they never felt greatly compelled to expand to other galaxies, but instead to fight other humans over control of the Milky Way. Eventually, such an aggressive alien race would expand from galaxy to galaxy, and try to invade the Milky Way Galaxy.
Specifically exemplifying this theory we find Asimov's Solarians: Asimovian psychohistory and similar concepts in other fiction Legend of the Galactic Heroes November — The concept of psychohistory appears in this novel by Yoshiki Tanaka. Hyperion — In Dan Simmons 's novel, the AI civilization is capable of statistically predicting future events to a very high degree of accuracy.
Flynn creates competing groups of psychohistorians. Ghost Rider May — In issue 1, a group of AIs predict that human society and therefore the global network in which the AIs exist will crash in One of them mentions that Asimov conceived the idea of such a mathematical model.
Deep Space Nine — In the episode " Statistical Probabilities ", a think tank uses mathematics to predict the future in a manner likely to be a reference to Asimov.Search the world's information, including webpages, images, videos and more.
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